In the world of fantasy baseball, the art of scouting and analyzing pitchers is a fascinating and ever-evolving task. Today, we delve into the intriguing topic of starting pitcher targets, focusing on those who are making a significant impact with their zone rates. It's an area that can offer valuable insights into a pitcher's performance and potential.
As we progress through the season, it's becoming clearer which players have made substantial improvements and which have not. For pitchers, the impact of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) is a crucial factor. The league-wide zone rate has decreased, indicating that pitchers are either struggling with the new strike zone or are mentally affected by the automated system. This has affected pitchers like Logan Webb, who typically thrives on the fringes of the zone.
Inspired by a podcast discussion and the current state of the game, I've created a leaderboard to identify starting pitchers who are excelling in specific areas. These pitchers are throwing strikes, keeping them away from the heart of the zone, and generating swinging strikes. It's a formula for success, and these pitchers are the ones to watch.
The Elite List
The leaderboard reveals an impressive array of aces, including Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, and Shohei Ohtani. These names need no introduction, but it's encouraging to see them performing at such a high level. Their presence on this list adds credibility to the criteria we're using.
Kyle Harrison: The Brewers' Fix
Kyle Harrison, a name that has been making waves, has improved his swinging strike rate and reduced his zone rate. His success can be attributed to his four-seam fastball, which has increased vertical movement and is being used more effectively. While it's not an elite two-strike pitch, it sets up his curveball, which has been effective against right-handed batters. However, his changeup needs work, and he may struggle against lineups with a lot of left-handed hitters.
Jack Leiter: A Work in Progress
Jack Leiter, despite a high ERA, has shown improvements. His SIERA suggests he's pitching better than his numbers indicate. He's throwing fewer pitches in the heart of the zone and getting more swings and misses. His four-seam fastball is a key weapon, and the addition of a cutter and sinker has made him more unpredictable. However, command issues persist, and he needs to work on his changeup.
Mike Burrows: Unlucky in Numbers
Mike Burrows' ERA doesn't reflect his true talent. Bad luck, in the form of a high BABIP and a low left-on-base rate, has affected his numbers. He's getting more swings and misses and allowing less hard contact. The key for Burrows is finding his changeup command again, and if he does, he could be a solid fantasy option.
Other Targeted Pitchers
The list of pitchers who just missed the leaderboard is also intriguing. Names like Dylan Cease, Chase Burns, and Braxton Ashcraft are worth noting. These pitchers have high swinging strike rates but may need to adjust their zone rates.
Braxton Ashcraft: A Late Bloomer
Braxton Ashcraft, a pitcher I highlighted in my offseason article, has made some interesting adjustments. He's throwing his four-seamer up in the zone more often, resulting in weaker contact. His curve is also performing better, and these changes feel sustainable. Ashcraft is a pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be a valuable addition to fantasy rosters.
Final Thoughts
Analyzing pitchers through the lens of zone rates offers a unique perspective. It allows us to identify those who are excelling in specific areas and have the potential to perform at a high level. While some pitchers on this list may need to make further adjustments, they are all worth monitoring. As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see how these pitchers develop and whether they can maintain their early-season success.
